A Rare Window of Opportunity To Crush Iran
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Iran has become one of Moscow’s most critical enablers, supplying drones, missiles, and expertise that have fueled devastating attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure.
Iran’s Shahed-136 drones—rebranded as Geran-2 by Russia—have become a cornerstone of Moscow’s strategy to terrorize Ukrainian cities. Delivered in bulk from August 2022 onward, these cheap, long-range “kamikaze” drones have been launched in swarms to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. By June 2025 alone, over 5,300 Shahed-type drones were fired at Ukraine in a single month.
Tehran’s support extends beyond exports. Iranian engineers helped Moscow establish domestic drone manufacturing in Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone, while Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah operatives trained Russian forces to operate the systems.
Debris recovered in Ukraine throughout 2024 shows Tehran is still supplying cutting-edge components, using the war as a live testbed for its drone innovations.
In return, Russia has transferred advanced military technology to Iran, including helicopters, radar systems, and likely Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems. Moscow is also sharing nuclear and space expertise—an alarming development as Tehran continues to pursue its nuclear ambitions.
This cooperation, formalized by a 20-year strategic partnership signed in 2023, has deepened the geopolitical alignment of Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China—what U.S. lawmakers now call the “New Axis of Evil.” China provides critical dual-use technologies, Iran’s oil exports to China generate billions to fund war efforts, and North Korea has shipped Russia millions of artillery shells and even personnel, receiving missile technology in return.
If unchecked, this network could soon integrate Iranian missile guidance systems into Russian weapons or jointly develop anti-ship and long-range strike capabilities.
With Iranian missile stockpiles depleted by Israeli strikes in 2025, Moscow is poised to help Tehran replenish them, creating a pipeline of weaponry for future Russian offensives.
The Window for Action
The European Union has sanctioned several Iranian entities, but the most powerful tool—the UN “Snapback Mechanism” embedded in the 2015 nuclear deal—remains unused. This mechanism, set to expire on October 18, would allow France and the UK to reimpose UN-level sanctions, including an arms embargo, ballistic missile restrictions, asset freezes, and, most importantly, measures targeting Iran’s oil exports.
Previous sanctions of this scale devastated Iran’s economy, halving its oil exports, collapsing the rial, and driving inflation above 40%. Reimposing them could cripple Tehran’s ability to finance drone production and undercut Russia’s war machine.
Failing to act would embolden this emerging authoritarian bloc, further destabilizing the global order. A decisive response would save Ukrainian lives, weaken Russia’s aggression, and limit Iran’s ambitions. The alliance between Moscow and Tehran is not just a regional challenge—it is a global threat that demands immediate Western action.
