Another Failed ICBM Launch Undermines Kremlin’s Nuclear Bluff
Russia’s latest attempt to flex its nuclear muscle has again ended in quiet embarrassment According to Ukrainian intelligence and military analysts, a planned launch of a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) from Russia’s Yars system failed to materialize—despite preparations, announcements, and the Kremlin’s usual theater of intimidation.
The launch was expected to take place near the town of Svobodny in Sverdlovsk Oblast. It was not a routine military drill. Ukrainian Defense Intelligence (HUR) had warned days earlier that Moscow intended the launch to serve as a political signal—an attempt to intimidate Ukraine and its Western allies amid continued battlefield setbacks and mounting international pressure.
But then, nothing happened.
This is not an isolated case of bluster falling flat. It fits into a pattern of overreach and systemic decay within Russia’s military-industrial complex. Once feared for its strategic capabilities, the Kremlin now increasingly relies on failed stunts and empty threats as it hemorrhages credibility on the world stage.
It also exposes the fragility of Russia’s so-called “strategic deterrence.” The Yars system, designed to carry multiple independently targetable nuclear warheads over a range of more than 10,000 kilometers, is among the crown jewels of Moscow’s arsenal. But the system is only as effective as its reliability—and this failure suggests cracks are growing in the facade of Russian military power.
This isn’t just about rockets and test ranges—it’s about the psychology of intimidation. Russia has long wielded nuclear weapons not just as tools of warfare, but as instruments of coercion. The very threat of launch is meant to silence critics, deter NATO support for Ukraine, and give Putin leverage he can’t win through diplomacy or force of arms. When that threat fizzles, so does part of the myth that sustains it.
The incident follows a disturbing November 2024 attack, where Russia used what was likely a ballistic missile from the secretive Kedr program to strike the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. That missile, launched from Astrakhan Oblast, traveled at speeds exceeding Mach 11 and hit its target in just 15 minutes. The psychological and physical devastation of that strike was enormous.
But Russia’s failure this week shows that even its most powerful tools are not immune to breakdowns—technical, logistical, or strategic.
As the Kremlin clings to Cold War-era theatrics, Ukraine and its allies continue to strengthen real defense capabilities while Putin vows to capture Ukraine.
Still, in a war where facts are as powerful as weapons, every failed Russian launch chips away at the illusion of invincibility that once shielded Moscow’s threats from scrutiny.