Another of Russia’s colonies is collapsing as Transnistria says it can no longer stay afloat

Transnistria, Moscow’s most entrenched outpost in Moldova, is now facing an existential crisis. Euronews reported that the breakaway region has entered a “severe financial crisis”, with its leadership admitting it can no longer cover “essential payments, including salaries.”

This marks a dramatic unraveling of one of Russia’s longest-standing satellite regions. Since the 1992 war with Moldova, Transnistria has been effectively occupied by Russia. Moscow maintains roughly 1,500 troops in the region along with a large Soviet-era weapons depot and military base in Cobasna—making it one of the most heavily militarized frozen conflicts in Europe. For over three decades, the region has been politically loyal to the Kremlin and economically dependent on Russian energy and subsidies.

Now, that dependency is backfiring. According to the region’s so-called ministers of economy and finance, Transnistria’s economic foundations are collapsing under a dual burden: a crippling energy shortage and geopolitical instability. The Euronews report highlights that industrial output has “dropped almost by half”, while exports plunged by about a third.

More than 450,000 residents are now grappling with service disruptions. Russia halted its free gas deliveries via Ukraine on January 1, 2025—a move widely seen as political blackmail aimed at pressuring Moldova. The result has been catastrophic. Without Russian gas, the Cuciurgan power plant—which provides most of Moldova’s electricity—shut down or switched to coal. Residents are left without reliable heating or hot water.

Water supply interruptions are now routine. Scheduled blackouts of up to four hours per day are common, compounding the hardship for civilians already struggling with inflation and food shortages.

Sergey Obolonik, Transnistria’s deputy administration head, described the situation bluntly:

“Shortages have left nearly 75,000 households without gas and another 116,000 with reduced supply.”

He warned that industrial shutdowns may be irreversible:

“We’ve never suffered such a blow to our budget… enterprises will lose the ability to start up.”

Transnistria’s main power plant began burning coal on January 1, with reserves expected to last just 50 days. By January 4, Moldovan officials warned the coal could run out entirely by the end of the month. Since then, rotating blackouts—once limited to an hour—have stretched up to eight hours in some districts.

The ripple effect has been severe. Factories have halted operations. Thousands of workers have been laid off. In Rîbnița, the region’s major steel plant has closed, leaving over 2,000 without work.

Authorities now admit that “reserves are exhausted,” and emergency meetings are underway to try to prevent total collapse.

What’s unfolding in Transnistria isn’t just a financial failure. It’s the strategic disintegration of one of Russia’s most important outposts in Europe. Built on the assumption that Russian gas, money, and military force would always be enough, the model is cracking under pressure.

As Moscow faces defeats in Syria, setbacks in Moldova and Romania, and deep uncertainty over Iran, Transnistria stands as a warning: Russia’s empire is no longer sustainable—even in the places it once controlled absolutely.