Despite -48% drop in price, Russia’s coal exports collapse -50% Leaving Ports Flooded
Russia’s coal export industry, once a pillar of the Kremlin’s energy-driven economy, is buckling under the weight of oversupply, collapsing demand, and vanishing margins. Nearly 50 million tons of coal—representing over a quarter of all exports in 2024—now sit idle at Russian ports, according to data cited by Kommersant. The unsold buildup is so extreme that coal handling facilities are slashing tariffs just to stay afloat, with no real prospect of relief on the horizon.
Coal transshipment costs fell to $9.20–13 per ton in June—down 19% from May and nearly 50% compared to a year ago—marking the steepest monthly decline since April, according to NEFT Research. In some cases, port operators are accepting shipments at just $5–10 per ton, barely covering costs.
“The entire system is backed up,” one port official told Kommersant. “There’s no movement. No market. And the warehouses are full.”
At the heart of the collapse is a global glut and the deteriorating economics of Russian coal. Analysts estimate that 62.8% of coal mining companies in Russia operated at a loss between January and April 2025. Even major terminals like Taman are reporting full warehouses. Logistics bottlenecks—compounded by infrastructure limits and Western sanctions—are only worsening the slowdown.
NEFT Research confirms that thermal coal shipments for export fell more than 50% in May, and the situation has not improved since. Port utilization remains weak, rail delivery slots are limited, and global prices are stagnant. Russian thermal coal traded between $62.80 and $107 per ton in mid-June—down as much as 20% since the start of the year.
With demand sluggish and margins razor-thin, even Russia’s largest coal exporters are struggling to keep material moving. According to Rikom-Trust analyst Oleg Abelev, stockpiles at major export terminals are now 20–25% above normal, and without a sharp uptick in foreign demand, the overhang will likely persist into the fourth quarter.
Some hope lies in India and Southeast Asia, but even those markets appear cautious. “We might see modest relief in the Far East—ports like Vanino or Khabarovsk have proximity on their side,” said one stevedore. “But for most producers, this is a waiting game with no guarantee of recovery.”
Analysts warn that only a significant rise in global prices or direct state intervention will prevent further financial pain. As Russia’s coal piles up in stagnant ports, its energy economy—long a source of geopolitical leverage—is beginning to look less like a weapon, and more like a liability.
