Germany Warns: Russia May Deploy “Green Men” in Estonia to Test NATO
Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), told Table.Media in a recent interview that Berlin has concrete intelligence suggesting Ukraine is only the beginning of Moscow’s westward ambitions.
“We are absolutely certain, and we have intelligence data to back this up, that Ukraine is just one step towards the West,” Kahl said.
According to Kahl, Russian strategic planning involves testing NATO’s mutual defense pact—specifically Article 5—by orchestrating destabilizing actions in member states like Estonia. Russia may be preparing to test NATO’s resolve not with tanks or missiles, but with hybrid tactics straight out of the Crimea playbook—this time targeting Estonia.
The Return of the “Green Men”
Rather than launching a full-scale invasion, Russia could deploy unmarked special forces—infamously dubbed “little green men” after their role in the 2014 annexation of Crimea.
“It is enough to send ‘little green men’ to Estonia under the pretext of allegedly protecting the Russian minority,” said Kahl.
This tactic would exploit ethnic tensions and create a gray-zone conflict: just enough aggression to create panic, but not enough to clearly justify NATO’s collective military response.
The heart of Kahl’s warning lies in Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which stipulates that an attack on one member is an attack on all. But hybrid attacks—cyber disruptions, false-flag operations, or covert troop deployments—could blur the threshold.
“Russia is trying to find out: how serious is NATO about defending every inch of its territory?” Kahl told Table.Media.
Why Estonia?
Estonia, with its sizable Russian-speaking population (around 24% of the total), has long been seen as a potential flashpoint. The Kremlin has previously accused Tallinn of “mistreating” Russian minorities, rhetoric that has been used in the past to justify military or covert interventions.
Estonia is one of NATO’s most vulnerable front-line states, sharing a 294-kilometer border with Russia. However, the other Baltic states are also not safe from potential Russian aggression.
In a development highlighting regional vigilance against pro-Kremlin influence, Latvia has launched criminal proceedings against Aleksejs Rosļikovs, a member of the Latvian parliament. According to Latvian security services, Rosļikovs—who holds Russian citizenship in addition to his Latvian one—publicly spread narratives aligned with Russian state propaganda and posed a threat to national security. Authorities are investigating whether his actions constitute criminal support for a foreign aggressor.
While Kahl did not release specific operational details, German intelligence sources suggest Russia has “contingency plans” for limited incursions into Baltic territory. This would likely be accompanied by disinformation campaigns and claims of human rights abuses against ethnic Russians.
Reuters also confirmed that Kahl met with counterparts from NATO and U.S. intelligence services, who reportedly share his assessment of an increased risk of Russian probing operations in the region.
In response to these revelations, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reaffirmed the alliance’s commitment to defend all members:
“We are ready and prepared. Any incursion—no matter how small—will be met with unity and resolve.”
Estonia’s Prime Minister also announced increased surveillance and intelligence-sharing with allies, calling the situation “serious but manageable.”
Germany has pledged to bolster its forward presence in the Baltics and strengthen cybersecurity defenses across Europe.
Germany’s intelligence chief has thrown down a gauntlet: NATO must be ready not just for war, but for a war that may never be formally declared. As hybrid threats rise and traditional red lines blur, the alliance faces a defining test of unity—and resolve.
