Hungary’s Orbán Regime Continues to Collapse in Polls
Hungary’s political map is undergoing a rapid transformation, with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz–KDNP alliance continuing to lose ground ahead of the next national election. A new poll by Median, conducted June 3–7 and published by Europe Elects, shows the opposition Tisza Party surging to 51% support among decided voters. Fidesz, in contrast, has slipped to 36%, marking a 15-point gap that would have been unthinkable even a year ago.
The results reflect deepening public frustration over economic stagnation, high inflation, and Hungary’s deteriorating relationship with the European Union. Orbán’s recent attempts to frame Tisza leader Péter Magyar as disloyal—including accusations bordering on treason—have failed to blunt his rise. Instead, the strategy appears to have backfired, reinforcing Magyar’s anti-corruption message and galvanizing support, especially among younger voters.
According to Eurostat’s 2024 figures, citizens aged 18 to 34 now represent 35% of the electorate, a group in which Tisza holds a decisive lead.
Among the core grievances driving the shift is growing anger over Orbán’s foreign policy. Many voters see his open alignment with Vladimir Putin and attacks on Ukraine as evidence that he is turning Hungary into what one Tisza campaigner recently called “a Russian colony in the middle of the EU.” This perception has hardened as Orbán continues to block European military aid to Ukraine and host meetings with sanctioned Russian officials.
Founded in 2020, the Tisza Party has positioned itself as a pro-European, centrist force calling for institutional reform and generational change. The party advocates term limits for elected officials, the declassification of Communist-era agent files, and the elimination of state benefits for former high-ranking officials—including past presidents. These proposals have found a receptive audience across the country, with Tisza’s decentralized “island” organizing model allowing it to reach rural voters long thought to be out of reach for the opposition.
Orbán’s dominance once appeared unshakeable. In 2022, Fidesz secured a supermajority in parliament amid widespread concerns over electoral irregularities, including media bias, gerrymandering, and the coordinated transport of external voters. At the time, international monitors from the OSCE described the vote as free but not fair. A follow-up report released in June 2025 cited continued structural bias in favor of Fidesz, but also noted growing civic pushback and mobilization.
Despite this, Orbán retains control over key state institutions. The judiciary, public broadcaster, and much of Hungary’s regulatory apparatus remain in the hands of Fidesz-aligned figures. The government has also used public funds to amplify its messaging and undermine opponents. These factors mean that a polling lead—even a commanding one—is no guarantee of an orderly transition.
Still, the scale and consistency of recent polling suggests that Hungary may be approaching a political inflection point. Tisza’s rise mirrors shifts seen in other post-communist democracies, where long-standing dominant parties eventually lose their grip in the face of coordinated, broad-based opposition campaigns. What distinguishes the current moment is the depth of dissatisfaction among voters who previously formed Orbán’s electoral core.
Analysts caution against premature conclusions, but the numbers are increasingly difficult to dismiss. A 15-point deficit, paired with growing youth turnout and momentum in rural districts, puts Fidesz in its weakest position in over a decade. For Orbán, who has built a political machine on control, stability, and loyalty, the latest figures reflect an electorate that may be preparing to force change—whether the system is ready for it or not.
