Israel Strikes Iran as Russia’s Web of Alliances Continues to Unravel
Israel’s wide-ranging military strikes against Iran on June 13 are sending shockwaves well beyond the Middle East. For Moscow, the assault underscores a far more troubling trend: the gradual unraveling of Russia’s geopolitical partnerships.
In the span of just seven months, Russia has experienced a series of significant diplomatic defeats.
- Its long-standing ally Bashar al-Assad lost control of Syria in late 2024.
- In Moldova, pro-European President Maia Sandu was re-elected in a vote that saw Kremlin-linked efforts to sway the result fail.
- In Romania, a similar pro-Russian campaign collapsed ahead of national elections.
- And now, just 147 days after Russia and Iran signed a sweeping “strategic partnership,” Tehran is suffering a devastating military blow—with no visible Russian support on the horizon.
The January 17 agreement between Moscow and Tehran was heralded as a historic alignment: a formal commitment to economic cooperation, military coordination, and intelligence sharing. But when Israeli fighter jets and drones struck over 100 Iranian targets—including air defenses, nuclear facilities, and Revolutionary Guard bases—Russia remained conspicuously absent.
Among those reportedly killed in the strikes were IRGC chief Hossein Salami and Armed Forces head Mohammad Bagheri.
Several nuclear scientists also died in the attacks, which triggered a muted Iranian response: roughly 100 drones launched toward Israel, nearly all of which were intercepted.
The lack of any Russian military or diplomatic reaction has drawn attention from analysts who view it as part of a larger erosion of Russian influence.
“The axis Russia hoped to build is showing serious cracks,” said one European official. “They’ve lost Syria, failed in Moldova and Romania, and now Iran has been humiliated with no response from Moscow.”
That decline comes as Moscow attempts to project itself as a global counterweight to the West. But its inability to defend or even respond on behalf of its closest partners is now being noticed—not least by those very partners.
Israel’s decision to strike also exposed shifting global dynamics.
According to U.S. officials, the Trump administration privately urged Israel not to proceed with a unilateral operation. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved forward regardless.
The operation—dubbed “Rising Lion”—demonstrates how even Washington’s closest allies are increasingly willing to bypass U.S. preferences.
In Congress, responses were divided. Republican lawmakers broadly supported the Israeli action, while some Democrats warned of regional escalation. Yet the administration’s silence in the face of such a large-scale operation may reflect the limits of U.S. influence in a more fragmented international order.
For Iran, the immediate fallout includes the loss of senior leadership and serious damage to its military infrastructure. But perhaps more consequential is the signal sent to regional actors: despite high-profile agreements, Iran stood alone in the face of overwhelming firepower.
For Russia, that signal is especially damaging. The partnership with Tehran was meant to showcase a new axis of cooperation between nations opposed to Western dominance. Instead, it has exposed how vulnerable that axis has become—and how unwilling or unable Russia is to come to the defense of its allies when tested.
Whether the Russian-Iranian alignment survives this episode intact remains unclear. But the broader pattern is now visible: in the space of months, Moscow has lost meaningful ground in three regions it once treated as central to its foreign policy strategy. The Israeli strikes may have occurred in Iranian airspace, but the political tremors are reverberating through the Kremlin.
