Medinsky’s Historical Blunder: A Delusional Threat at Istanbul Talks
Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s lead negotiator at the Istanbul peace talks on May 16, 2025, embarrassed himself and his country with a historically inaccurate analogy and a series of deranged threats that expose his ineptitude.
In an attempt to intimidate the Ukrainian delegation, Medinsky referenced the Great Northern War (1700–1721), where Russia, under Peter the Great, fought Sweden for 21 years. This comparison is not only flawed but a humiliating reflection of Russia’s current failures in Ukraine, revealing Medinsky’s ignorance and strategic delusion.
During the Great Northern War, Russia had a population of 15 million—10 times Sweden’s 1.5 million—and was supported by a broad coalition, including Denmark-Norway, Poland-Lithuania, Prussia, and Great Britain. Sweden, largely isolated, could muster only 80,000 troops at its peak against Russia’s 250,000. Despite this overwhelming advantage, it still took Russia 21 years to win, with 150,000–200,000 casualties.
Ukraine maintains frontline parity
Medinsky’s attempt to liken this to the Ukraine war is absurd. Russia’s population today is only four times Ukraine’s, and Ukraine is backed by a powerful coalition—NATO, the EU, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea—while Russia relies on North Korea and Iran, with China providing only cautious support.
Ukraine maintains frontline parity, often with localized advantages, and its drone warfare has become a major factor, producing millions of drones that account for a significant portion of Russian losses.
In just over three years, Russia has suffered 950,000 casualties, including 200,000 killed—an annual loss rate 40 times higher than in the Great Northern War. Medinsky’s analogy only underscores Russia’s historical incompetence: even with a 10:1 population advantage, it took them decades to defeat a small opponent. Today, they’re hemorrhaging against a far stronger adversary.
Medinsky’s behavior in Istanbul was even more disgraceful. According to Oliver Carroll of the Economist, he told the Ukrainian delegation, “We don’t want war, but we’re ready to fight for a year, two, three—however long it takes.” He then issued a chilling threat: “Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones. Russia is prepared to fight forever.”
Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko reported another menacing claim: Medinsky said Russia would soon control the Sumy region. These statements aren’t just belligerent—they’re unhinged. Russia’s military is collapsing, with nearly a million casualties and equipment losses that would stun even the tsars. Making threats of further death and territorial expansion during peace talks exposes Medinsky as a thug, not a diplomat.
Medinsky’s historical revisionism and reckless posturing are a desperate attempt to prop up a failing war. If the Great Northern War is his model for modern conflict, he’s not just clueless—he’s dangerously out of touch. Russia should be ashamed to have such an incompetent figure representing them. His threats in Istanbul didn’t intimidate Ukraine; they only highlighted the Kremlin’s desperation and Medinsky’s profound stupidity.