OPEC Turns Up the Taps—and Turns Up the Heat on Russia

OPEC+ is accelerating oil production. What began as a slow unwind of voluntary cuts has become a sharp shift in strategy: the group plans to reverse 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of voluntary cuts by the end of October—much faster than previously expected. For Russia, this is not just bad news. It is potentially devastating.

As of April 1, OPEC+ had already increased output by 138,000 bpd. In May and June, that increase jumps to 411,000 bpd per month. If the same pace continues in July through October, the bloc will have effectively returned nearly a million barrels per day to the market in just seven months. That pushes the full unwind of voluntary cuts from the original target of late 2026 to a new, much earlier date: November 2025.

For Russia, whose budget depends heavily on oil revenue and whose war machine in Ukraine is sustained by energy exports, this is a direct hit. Every additional barrel OPEC+ pumps into the market drives prices lower. Brent crude already fell below $60 in April—a four-year low—and further increases could push it down even more. This erosion in prices comes just as Russia needs every ruble to sustain its military spending, finance domestic repression, and keep an increasingly strained economy afloat.

The signal from OPEC+ is also unmistakably political. Saudi Arabia, which leads the bloc, has grown impatient with member states that fail to comply with production targets. Kazakhstan has openly defied its quota. Iraq continues to miss targets. Russia, too, has a long history of “creative” compliance—something the Saudis no longer seem willing to tolerate. In recent meetings, Riyadh has warned that unless discipline improves, the voluntary cuts will be scrapped entirely. That warning now appears to be becoming policy.

The timing couldn’t be worse for Moscow. Sanctions have already narrowed its energy markets, forcing it to sell at discounts to China and India. Western firms no longer insure Russian cargoes. Technical expertise has drained away. Now, with prices softening and competitors flooding the market, Russia risks losing its last major lever of economic influence.

The broader shift also diminishes Russia’s relevance inside OPEC+ itself. Once seen as a strategic partner to Saudi Arabia, Moscow is increasingly viewed as a weak link—unreliable, overextended, and desperate to prop up revenues at any cost. Its influence within the group is waning just as it needs it most.

Market analysts are clear-eyed about the implications. As UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo noted, unless there is strict compliance with production targets, the market will take this negatively—especially for states like Russia, whose fiscal health is tied to oil above $70 per barrel.

In short: Russia is being outmaneuvered. The very cartel it joined to boost prices is now accelerating production. The plan is not designed to hurt Russia directly—but the outcome will. Cheaper oil, collapsing margins, and reduced leverage in global markets. In war and in oil, Russia is running out of options