Orbán’s Imperial Ambitions: Backed by Putin, A Threat to Ukraine and the Balkans
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is charting a dangerous course—reviving the dream of a Greater Hungary by eyeing territories in Ukraine and the Balkans, with growing support from Vladimir Putin’s Russia. This irredentist project, rooted in grievances over the 1920 Treaty of Trianon, risks destabilizing Eastern Europe at a moment when the continent is already grappling with war, fragmentation, and the resurgence of authoritarianism.
In Ukraine’s Zakarpattia region, which is home to a large ethnic Hungarian population, Ukrainian security services have reportedly uncovered covert Hungarian military intelligence operations. These efforts resemble Russia’s early hybrid tactics in Crimea and Donbas—couched in the language of ethnic protection but aimed at setting the groundwork for future territorial claims. Orbán, whose nationalist rhetoric often references Trianon as a historical injustice, is believed to be preparing a broader territorial push. A 2023 report even cited a former Russian official claiming Orbán hopes to reclaim not only Zakarpattia but also Romania’s Transylvania and a corridor to the Adriatic Sea through Croatia.
Budapest has also opened the door to Chinese state influence, allowing Chinese police patrols in Hungary and receiving nearly half of China’s total investments in Europe.
Flirting with Bosnian Serbs
In the Western Balkans, Hungary has become a key backer of Milorad Dodik, the secessionist leader of Bosnia’s Serbs. Arms shipments to Serbia and the deployment of Hungarian special forces to Banja Luka appear designed to reinforce Dodik’s push to fracture Bosnia and Herzegovina. Orbán’s government has also openly opposed a UN resolution recognizing the Srebrenica genocide, drawing condemnation from international observers and worsening tensions in a region still healing from the 1990s wars.
This posture is not limited to foreign policy. Domestically, Orbán continues to consolidate power in the mold of Putin’s Russia. Hungary ranks as the most corrupt EU member state, according to Transparency International, with widespread allegations of state looting by Orbán’s inner circle. Leaked documents suggest Hungary has even considered deploying “peacekeeping” forces to western Ukraine—an intervention clearly dependent on a Russian victory that now appears increasingly unlikely.
Orbán’s long game is clear: restore Hungary’s lost empire with Russia’s blessing and China’s money, while using EU membership as a shield from serious accountability. As Hungary assumes the EU Council presidency in July 2024, this strategy threatens to undermine the Union from within.
The EU must act swiftly. Orbán is not just a nuisance; he is a willing vector for Kremlin influence and a destabilizing force in some of Europe’s most volatile regions. Delay will only embolden his ambitions—and bring the continent closer to its next crisis.