Russia Unwittingly Confirms Ukraine’s Estimates of Russian Casualties in Ukraine

In a rare slip, a senior Russian diplomat has inadvertently confirmed both the number of Russian troops in Ukraine as well as casualty figures that align with Western and Ukrainian estimates — highlighting staggering losses. Andrey Kelin, Russia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom, told CNN on June 19 that around 600,000 Russian soldiers are currently stationed in Ukraine.

Kelin first attempted to dismiss Kyiv’s oft-cited figure of 1 million casualties as exaggerated—Ukrainian military data reveals that in the past six months alone, Russia has lost 217,440 troops, a trend Western intelligence sources also support.

But in attempting to reject Ukraine’s estimate, Kelin unintentionally reinforced it.

“The number of people who are now in the army and who are participating in this special military operation is about 600,000,” he said.

When asked about the scale of Russian losses, he added:

“I don’t think it is approaching one million, although this figure was mentioned by the Ukrainian side.”

Crucially, Kelin also admitted that Russia has been able to maintain this force level because of continuous recruitment and rotation.

He said Russia replaces 30,000 to 40,000 troops every month—a figure that, over 28 months of war, would imply well over one million troops cycled in and out of the front, with hundreds of thousands killed, wounded, or otherwise rendered unfit for service.

When combined with prior casualty data and internal Russian sources, the 1 million figure becomes increasingly plausible. Over 111,000 confirmed Russian military deaths have been documented through open-source records such as obituaries, veterans’ registries, and court files.

Western intelligence assessments estimate that Russia has been losing approximately 1,200 troops per day in mid-2024, with monthly casualties in some periods reaching 35,000 to 45,000. Total losses in 2024 alone are believed to exceed 400,000. Despite ramping up recruitment to 60,000 new soldiers per month, Russian forces struggle to keep pace with these losses.

The financial cost is also steep. According to economist Janis Kluge, recruitment bonuses alone cost Russia $24 million per day, adding strain to an economy already hit by sanctions, reduced energy revenues, and inflation.

Militarily, these figures underscore the transformation of Russia’s invasion strategy into one of attrition—trading manpower for marginal territorial control. Despite these sacrifices, Russian forces still hold only about 20% of Ukrainian territory.

Kelin’s comments, though intended to downplay the scale of losses, unintentionally confirm the opposite: that Russia is cycling through massive numbers of troops, sustaining immense casualties, and facing mounting pressure to maintain manpower.

As requests for DNA testing from families of missing Russian soldiers grow, the human cost of the war is becoming harder to conceal. For Ukraine and its allies, Kelin’s words provide indirect but significant confirmation that the Kremlin’s war machine is bleeding—deeply, and unsustainably.