Russia’s economic stability faces mounting challenges as oil prices plummet to levels far below the government’s budgetary expectations. As of May 2, 2025, the average price for Russia’s Urals and ESPO oil blends has dropped to $48.92 per barrel, or 3,987 roubles, marking a two-year low and standing over 40% beneath the 6,726 roubles per barrel projected in the federal budget. This significant shortfall in oil revenue is exerting considerable pressure on Russia’s fiscal health.

The Central Bank of Russia has reported a $3.5 billion decrease in its international reserves over the week ending April 25, bringing the total down to $677.8 billion. While Russian officials attribute the drop to “negative revaluation,” the reality is more complex— and more troubling for the Kremlin.

Russia’s wartime economy continues to collapse, with today’s data confirming a worsening situation in production across the country. Russia’s civilian industrial sector has officially entered recession, according to a new report from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), underscoring the growing strain on the country’s economy amid prolonged military mobilization and tightening international isolation.