Russian agricultural Armageddon continues with tractor sales down another -33%
The agricultural machinery market in Russia continues to decline sharply, with sales dropping another -33% in the first quarter — despite a clear need among farmers to update their aging fleets.
Industry experts attribute the slump primarily to high interest rates, which are discouraging purchases. Sales of Russian-made agricultural machinery in the domestic market fell by 32.9% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, amounting to 38.3 billion rubles, according to data from the Rosspetsmash Association.
The primary drivers behind the continued market decline remain unchanged: a high central bank key interest rate, weak profitability in the agricultural sector, insufficient government support for both farmers and equipment manufacturers, and rising production costs for both machinery and agricultural products.
The most dramatic drop was recorded in the grain harvester segment, where sales plummeted by 58.3% to just 437 units. Other categories also showed negative trends:
Forage harvesters: –32.4%
Tractors: –39%
Plows: –13%
Cultivators: –17.4%
Harrows: –20.3%
Seeders: –4.5%
Sprayers: –30%
Reapers: –13.2%
Grain-cleaning machines: –25.3%
A few categories bucked the trend. Fertilizer application machinery saw a 2.3-fold increase to 138 units. Sales of mowers and balers also rose, by 28.7% and 28.3% respectively.
According to Aleksandr Altynov, Chairman of the Agricultural Machinery Dealers Association (ASCHOD), imports of foreign agricultural machinery likely mirrored the domestic trend, with an estimated 33% drop in Q1. “Initially, it was expected that imports would fall even more sharply. However, a significant volume was brought in before the recycling fee increase, keeping prices steady. On top of that, the ruble strengthened slightly,” he explained.
Aging Fleet, Delayed Demand
Despite the downturn, the need for fleet renewal remains acute. Gennady Nepomnyashchiy, Commercial Director of the technical holding EkoNiva, confirmed that much of Russia’s agricultural machinery is significantly outdated. However, he pointed to the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy and high interest rates as the primary barriers to new purchases.
“Money is extremely expensive right now, and subsidies for equipment purchases have been significantly reduced,” he said.
As a result, many farmers are delaying new purchases and continuing to operate aging equipment, investing heavily in repairs. “We’re seeing a trend toward using expensive tractors and harvesters only for the most critical tasks—such as harvesting—where their value is maximized. For less demanding jobs like field plowing, simpler machines are used,” Nepomnyashchiy added.
Industry experts interviewed by Kommersant note a clear trend toward an aging machinery fleet across farms. Even regulatory expectations are being adjusted. According to the Ministry of Agriculture’s 2025 strategic objectives, the projected replacement rates are:
Tractors: 3.4%
Grain harvesters: 3.7%
Forage harvesters: 3.2%
These forecasts are slightly lower than the 2024 figures: 3.5%, 4.1%, and 4.1%, respectively, as reported by the industry portal Pole.RF
Dealers, producers, and farmers alike see no signs of improvement in Q2. Altynov believes that a pool of deferred demand is forming, but it’s unlikely to translate into actual purchases this year. Nepomnyashchiy expects demand to rebound only after interest rates begin to fall.
“It’s unlikely we’ll see a turnaround before the end of the year. But looking ahead to next year, we anticipate growth in sales and a more active renewal of the machinery fleet,” he forecasted.
A noticeable trend is the increasing average age of equipment in use, signaling growing deferred demand. However, dealers and agricultural producers believe this pent-up demand is unlikely to materialize until next year at the earliest.
The news comes at a time when Russia’s economy is spiralling while Gazprom CEO sounds the alarm on a looming Russian energy crisis.