The dominoes continue to fall in what remains of Russia’s manufacturing sector, with the entire Russian aviation industry now only producing as many aircraft in two years as the US does in three weeks, coming in with only 7 passenger aircraft built since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, significantly missing its target of 108 planes by the end of 2024, according to a report by BBC News Russia.
The Air Industry Development Program, approved by the Russian government in June 2022, aimed to bolster domestic aircraft manufacturing to counter the impact of Western sanctions. However, production timelines for several models have been postponed to between 2025 and 2028, reflecting challenges in meeting initial goals.
Despite President Vladimir Putin’s assertions that sanctions would stimulate Russian industry, the aviation sector faces significant hurdles. Since 2022, Russia has completed seven Sukhoi Superjet 100 passenger planes, utilizing pre-war stockpiled components. Additionally, two prototypes—the Il-96-400M and Il-114—have been constructed for test flights. These figures are based on data from Russian Planes, an unofficial aircraft registry, corroborated by media reports and other sources, as the federal aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, has ceased publishing its civil aviation register.
An industry insider described the government’s production plan as an “imitation of activity” intended to “calm government nerves,” suggesting it was never a feasible strategy.
The sanctions have also led to a 30% increase in safety incidents involving passenger planes in 2024 compared to the previous year, raising concerns about flight safety due to inadequate aircraft maintenance. To circumvent sanctions, Russia has resorted to smuggling spare parts and procuring aviation software on the black market, though these measures are neither “completely reliable nor completely safe,” according to Alexander Lanetsky, CEO of civil aviation consultancy Friendly Avia Support.
Increasingly pessimistic analyst consensus now paints a dire picture going forward, with the majority of the country’s resources now mobilized toward war, the Russian Central Bank’s rapidly rising interest rates, collapsing housing and durable goods sectors added to constantly increasing sanctions pressure, any form of manufacturing will soon enter a state of paralysis.