Russia’s Oil Exports Plunge -29% in One Week as Port Loadings Collapse Under New EU Sanctions
If this week’s Russian oil exports data is an indication, it appears that Ukraine’s allies had the power to turn off Putin’s cash machine all along.
Russia’s oil export system is now under severe pressure, with a dramatic -29% weekly drop in crude shipments signaling a new stage in the unraveling of the Kremlin’s war economy. According to Kommersant and shipping data, total seaborne oil exports fell to 352,000 tons per day during the final week of May—down from 493,000 tons just one week earlier.
This collapse, one of the sharpest recorded since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, follows the implementation of newly expanded EU sanctions targeting Russian energy logistics, particularly refined products and transshipment chains. The impact has been immediate—and severe.
The steepest decline was seen at Primorsk, a key Baltic port, where loadings dropped from 172,000 tons per day to 93,000. Volumes at Novorossiysk fell to 42,000 tons, and Ust-Luga to 60,000. Only Kozmino, Russia’s Far East outlet used primarily for shipments to China, held relatively steady at 123,000 tons per day.
Analysts tracking port data noted that the last week of May marked the lowest shipment level in months. The new sanctions have further restricted access to Western shipping, finance, and insurance services—crippling Russia’s ability to execute even pre-arranged deliveries. This isn’t just a fluctuation in weather or tanker queues. It’s structural damage.
Oil remains one of the few viable revenue sources left for the Kremlin. But this downturn shows how fragile even that pillar has become.
Some tankers are refusing to lift Russian cargoes due to legal uncertainty. Others are delayed indefinitely as cargo documentation fails to comply with tightening international enforcement.
Kommersant notes the growing isolation of Russian exporters, now heavily reliant on a shrinking “shadow fleet” of tankers. With increasing scrutiny from the EU, fewer ports willing to accept opaque deliveries, and no viable back-channel networks of scale, Moscow is running out of options.
Kozmino, near Nakhodka, remains stable for now—but it is operating at capacity and committed to long-term contracts with China and India, often at steep discounts. The port cannot compensate for collapsing volumes elsewhere.
Meanwhile, in Washington, the White House remains conspicuously absent from coordinated pressure. Despite overwhelming bipartisan support in Congress to expand sanctions against Russian oil and shipping infrastructure, the U.S. president has so far refused to act, opting instead for cautious diplomacy. Observers say this reluctance plays directly into Putin’s hands—giving Moscow time to rewire sanctions loopholes and keep its war machine running.
The numbers, however, are unforgiving. With Ukraine continuing to strike refineries and Europe tightening the noose, Russia’s oil export machine—once a symbol of untouchable power—is faltering. Each lost ton represents not just a revenue hit, but a crack in the facade of a regime increasingly running on desperation.
If the trend continues, the Kremlin’s ability to fund its war may begin to erode at the very point it can least afford it. And the West’s response, or lack of one, will shape the battlefield as much as any weapon.
