Ukraine’s trade with Germany Rises, Surpassing Russia for the First Time

Ukraine has surpassed Russia as a trading partner for Germany in 2024, marking a milestone in economic realignment amid geopolitical shifts. According to figures cited by the Ukrainian Embassy in Berlin and released on June 21, bilateral trade between Germany and Ukraine reached €840 million last year, while trade with Russia fell to €770 million .

This is the first time since 1992 that Ukraine has claimed the top spot in trade among Germany’s Eastern European partners. The Embassy highlighted that in September 2023, Ukraine’s monthly trade turnover with Germany briefly overtook Russia’s—a sign of momentum that carried through to the full-year results  .

What’s Driving the Surge

The high performing sectors include agriculture and food products, metals and metal products, and machinery, equipment and transport vehicles. These industries were instrumental in propelling Ukraine ahead, reflecting a shift from traditional energy and commodity-focused exchange with Russia to a diversified trade structure with Germany.

Significant German investments have further supported Ukraine’s economic pivot. With reconstruction efforts underway following damage to infrastructure, German firms are increasingly engaging in energy, information technology, and digitalisation projects, broadcasted as long-term investment opportunities by the Ukrainian Embassy in Berlin.

Russia’s Trade Collapse

The drop in trade with Russia highlights the dramatic reordering of European supply chains. Official statistics show Germany’s imports from Russia plummeted by 95% between 2021 and 2024, while exports to Russia declined around 72%, fueled by EU-wide sanctions and energy diversification efforts  . Russia’s share among Germany’s suppliers fell sharply from 12th to 59th place, underscoring market realignment.

Implications for Ukraine and Europe

This shift is not just symbolic. It shows European economic integration is accelerating for Ukraine even amid an ongoing war. German industry sees Ukraine not as a country in crisis, but as a strategic partner—particularly in manufacturing and tech.

The development strengthens Ukraine’s case for deeper integration with the EU and Western markets, complementing its candidate country status and trade liberalisation steps under the DCFTA. For Germany, bolstering trade with Kyiv supports a broader strategic objective of reducing dependency on Russia and strengthening Eastern European supply chains.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the encouraging outlook, Ukraine faces challenges sustaining this growth. With infrastructure damaged by war and reconstruction reliant on foreign capital, the country must accelerate reforms, improve transparency, and guarantee stability. Germany’s investment interest depends heavily on reliable governance and long-term market viability.

External economic pressures, including global commodity volatility and ongoing conflict, also pose risks. Ukraine’s ability to maintain access to European markets, expand export capacity, and enforce trade agreements will be tested in the coming months.

A Growing Economic Anchor

Reuters data confirms Germany’s broader reorientation: Germany’s imports from Russia have collapsed — down 95% from a pre-war level—highlighting the shift toward alternative partners such as Ukraine.

In sum, surpassing Russia in trade with Germany speaks to more than a single metric—it signifies Ukraine’s economic recovery and integration into Western supply chains. With strategic sectors taking the lead, Ukraine appears to be building an enduring partnership with Germany—one now topped by trade value and grounded in shared political and economic interests.