Ukrainian Drones Strike Several More Russian Refineries as Gas Crisis Deepens
August is turning into a deadly month for Russia’s oil industry. In the space of little more than a week, Ukrainian long-range drones have hit four major refineries across the country, temporarily knocking out units and cutting into a combined capacity equal to nearly 14% of Russia’s national refining potential.
The latest strike came on August 10, when explosions rocked the Saratov Oil Refinery, a Rosneft-owned plant on the Volga River. With a design capacity of about 7.0 million tons per year (2.5% of Russia’s total), Saratov is a key supplier to the Volga and southern regions. Damage assessments are ongoing, but the attack follows a string of successful Ukrainian operations against the sector.
On August 7, drones targeted the Afipsky Refinery in Krasnodar Krai, a facility processing around 6.25 million tons per year (2.2% of total capacity). Fires broke out in a gas processing unit, underscoring the vulnerability of plants even deep inside Russian territory.
The heaviest single-day blow came on August 2, when Ukraine struck two large facilities: the Novokuibyshevsk Refinery in Samara region and the Ryazan Refinery, southeast of Moscow. Novokuibyshevsk, capable of 8.8 million tons annually (3.1%), halted its primary distillation unit, while Ryazan — one of Russia’s biggest at 17.1 million tons per year (6.1%) — was forced to shut down two of its three crude units, operating at roughly half capacity.
Combined, the four facilities process about 39.15 million tons per year, or nearly 14% of Russia’s total design refining capacity. Even temporary outages at this scale ripple through the domestic fuel market and squeeze export volumes.
Strategic impact
These latest strikes follow months of Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure, part of a broader strategy to limit Russia’s ability to fund its war. Analysts note that refineries are a particularly valuable target: every disrupted unit means less fuel for the Russian military and less export revenue from refined products.
The timing compounds Russia’s existing energy headaches. The country is already in the midst of a gas crisis, with domestic shortages and rising prices triggered by reduced production at Gazprom, aging infrastructure, and sanctions that have curtailed access to Western technology. Moscow has been forced to prioritize supply to key industries and export customers over domestic consumers, fuelling discontent in the regions.
Those pressures are converging with a sharp fiscal downturn. According to intelligence, in the first seven months of 2025, Russia’s federal budget deficit ballooned to $61 billion — more than four times the planned amount — equal to 2.2% of GDP. Oil and gas revenues fell 18.5% to $69 billion, hit by lower global prices, a stronger ruble, and missed revenue targets. Even after April’s budget revisions, the shortfall has overshot projections, and government forecasts suggest the deficit could reach $75 billion by year’s end. GDP growth expectations have been slashed from 2.5% to just 0.5–1%.
The combination of reduced refining output and gas supply constraints threatens to create a double-pressure scenario for the Kremlin. Lower refinery throughput not only cuts into tax revenue but also risks fuel shortages in rural areas ahead of the harvest season, while the gas shortfall is squeezing energy-intensive industries and raising heating costs as autumn approaches.
A shifting battlefield
For Ukraine, the August refinery campaign is a demonstration of deep-strike capability. Hitting large, defended targets hundreds of kilometers from the border shows both improved drone range and intelligence. For Russia, each hit forces a diversion of air defenses and repair resources away from the front.
If the pattern continues, August 2025 may be remembered as the month when the war’s energy front turned decisively against Moscow.
