Orbán Shifts from Peace Rhetoric to Military Posturing
Just as Hungary was exposed for gathering intelligence on Ukraine’s air defense systems through a clandestine network in Transcarpathia, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made another notable move: the transfer of 66 Soviet-era armored vehicles to Serbia.
On 9th of May, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) revealed it had uncovered a Hungarian spy network in Transcarpathia. Two agents, allegedly recruited by Hungarian military intelligence, were tasked with collecting information on Ukrainian troop positions, infrastructure, public sentiment—and critically, photographing an S-300 air defense system. The nature of the intelligence raised concerns that it would be more useful to Russia than to Hungary.
Another significant action happened just weeks earlier: reports broke that Hungary’s elite TEK special forces had quietly prepped an operation to extract Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik from Republika Srpska if the local courts dared to enforce the law. TEK operatives were deployed under the cover of a joint training exercise—just in case Dodik needed a quick getaway. In the end, the plan fizzled after Dodik appealed and too many governments—including the U.S.—got wind of it.
So far, responses from the EU and NATO have remained largely diplomatic and restrained.
But the combination of these and other worrisome actions points to a broader shift in Hungary’s regional posture—from “neutrality and peace dialogue” to military operations.
Orban is making sure if Balkan tensions flare up again… Hungary is on the wrong side. …Again.
Meanwhile, Hungary may be preparing to join war on Russia’s side while the country’s economy is spiralling.