Russian Rail Shipping Hits 16-Year Low as Exports, Industries Collapse

Russia’s economy is derailing—literally. In May 2025, the country’s rail freight volumes have plummeted to levels not seen since 2009, a sign of profound weakness in its industrial core. The state-owned monopoly Russian Railways (RZD) has reported a 9% year-on-year decline in overall rail loading volumes so far in May, while container rail shipments—one of the most valuable segments—have dropped by over 10%, according to Sergey Shishkarev, chairman of the Delo Group.

The statistics are stark. April 2025 saw only 92.9 million tonnes of freight moved by rail—a 16-year low and an 8.6% drop year-on-year. That decline has accelerated in May.

Dmitry Murev, Deputy General Director of RZD, confirmed that the most severely affected cargo segments are construction materials, grain, oil products, and ferrous metals—all of which form the backbone of Russia’s heavy industry and export revenue.

• Grain cargoes have dropped 13% in May compared to last year, with exports collapsing despite moderate domestic demand.
• Construction materials are down 21.1% year-to-date, mirroring a housing and infrastructure freeze caused by prohibitively high interest rates.
• Ferrous metals have declined by 14.4% so far in 2025.
• Oil and petroleum products fell 5.8%, despite surging global prices—another sign of logistical or infrastructural disruption, including damage from Ukrainian drone strikes.

Shishkarev, whose Delo Group operates TransContainer, highlighted that what was once considered a minor contraction in Q1 has “turned into a significant one.”

Containers—used to move high-value electronics, industrial tools, and machinery—are shrinking faster than low-margin bulk cargo like coal.

Compounding the problem is the Russian Central Bank’s 21% base rate, choking off credit and stalling investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and heavy industry.

Rail volumes are a reliable barometer of macroeconomic health—and right now, that barometer is flashing red.

In response to the collapse, RZD has cut its 2025 cargo volume forecast by 36.7 million tonnes and slashed its investment plan by 3.5%, following an earlier 40% cut compared to 2024. Revenues are collapsing while debt burdens grow.

Sanctions are also biting. Exporters like Rusal, Severstal, and Gazprom Neft are reducing output or rerouting logistics as Western and Asian markets tighten. Chinese demand is falling. Global insurers are hesitant. And Russia’s supposed “pivot to the East” is failing to carry the weight.

In essence, the war economy is cannibalizing itself. Drone warfare, capital flight, and isolation have broken the supply chains that once powered Russia’s industrial ambitions.

The trains are still running—but more and more, they run empty. What moves through Russia’s railways today is not just cargo. It is the momentum of a declining empire, hauling less steel, fewer grains, and far too much dead weight.