On May 9, the United Kingdom announced its most extensive sanctions package to date against Russia, targeting 100 oil tankers that make up the Kremlin’s so-called “shadow fleet,” along with an additional vessel linked to Russian government support. Moscow’s shadow fleet consists largely of aging tankers used to circumvent international sanctions imposed by the UK, European Union, and the United States.
Russia is plunging deeper into economic turmoil as ballooning war expenditures, inflation, and mismanaged spending have pushed the Kremlin into a severe fiscal crisis. In the first four months of 2025 alone, the country recorded a staggering 3.2 trillion ruble deficit, raising alarms about the long-term sustainability of Moscow’s wartime budget. Despite official claims that revenues are increasing at a rate of 5%, spending continues to surge far beyond forecasts.
Russia Faces Deepening Fiscal Crisis as War Spending Overwhelms Budget Read Post »
The Verkhovna Rada has ratified a landmark Economic Partnership Agreement between Ukraine and the United States, marking a significant milestone in bilateral relations and laying the groundwork for long-term economic and security cooperation. Described as unprecedented in the history of U.S.-Ukraine relations, the agreement establishes a new framework for equal partnership and investment, with a strong emphasis on Ukraine’s sovereignty and national interests.
It’s clear in everything from rental advertisements to foreign trade news— Ukraine is replacing the USD with the Euro. For several reasons, Ukraine is gradually breaking up with the dollar. Over the past year, a subtle but decisive shift has unfolded in the country’s trade: euros are replacing U.S. dollars as the preferred currency. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the share of euros in Ukrainian exports and imports has grown steadily.
Ukraine Quietly Shifts Trade from Dollars to Euros Read Post »
Tatneft’s net profit under Russian Accounting Standards (RAS) dropped by 45.5% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025, falling to 37.29 billion rubles, according to the company’s financial disclosures. This represents a 1.8-fold decrease compared to the same period last year. Quarterly revenue declined by 5.4% to 361.44 billion rubles, while the cost of sales rose 8.1% to 276.59 billion rubles. As a result, gross profit contracted by 32.8%, totaling 84.86 billion rubles.
Profit at Russian oil giant Tatneft drops by half Read Post »
Russia’s economic stability faces mounting challenges as oil prices plummet to levels far below the government’s budgetary expectations. As of May 2, 2025, the average price for Russia’s Urals and ESPO oil blends has dropped to $48.92 per barrel, or 3,987 roubles, marking a two-year low and standing over 40% beneath the 6,726 roubles per barrel projected in the federal budget. This significant shortfall in oil revenue is exerting considerable pressure on Russia’s fiscal health.
Russian oil now trading at -40% of what’s required to keep government funded Read Post »
The Central Bank of Russia has reported a $3.5 billion decrease in its international reserves over the week ending April 25, bringing the total down to $677.8 billion. While Russian officials attribute the drop to “negative revaluation,” the reality is more complex— and more troubling for the Kremlin.
Russia’s Reserves Shrink by $3.5 Billion in a Week — Signs of a Cracking Fortress Read Post »
OPEC+ is accelerating oil production. What began as a slow unwind of voluntary cuts has become a sharp shift in strategy: the group plans to reverse 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of voluntary cuts by the end of October— much faster than previously expected. For Russia, this is not just bad news. It is potentially devastating. As of April 1, OPEC+ had already increased output by 138,000 bpd. In May and June, that increase jumps to 411,000 bpd per month.
OPEC Turns Up the Taps—and Turns Up the Heat on Russia Read Post »
