Europe still can’t make up for US weapons supplies if they stop
As Ukraine’s war with Russia grinds on, European efforts to fill the growing gap in U.S. military support have faltered, highlighting the continent’s limited capacity to replace American firepower just as Ukraine faces critical battlefield shortages.
According to New York Times, since former President Donald Trump took office vowing to scale back American involvement in Ukraine’s defense, European leaders have been increasingly concerned that they could not fully step into the void. More than two years into the war, those fears appear well founded.
European nations, part of a coalition backing Ukraine, have struggled to deliver essential weaponry in the face of mounting demand. The delays are partly why Ukraine’s Parliament overwhelmingly approved a deal this week granting the United States a share of future revenues from the country’s natural resources — including valuable minerals — in hopes of preserving the possibility of continued American arms shipments.
“This gives us hope,” said Yehor Chernev, deputy chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary committee on national security, defense, and intelligence.
In an interview following the vote, Chernev said Ukrainian forces are running dangerously low on long-range missiles, artillery, and advanced air-defense systems — many of which are manufactured in the United States. With U.S. military aid authorized by the Biden administration set to run out by summer, and Trump showing reluctance to extend support, Kyiv faces a steep uphill climb.
“He told me that he needs more weapons, but he’s been saying that for three years,” Trump said after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last month in Rome. While Trump’s administration has allowed Kyiv to purchase some arms directly from American manufacturers, it has withheld broader government-backed aid.
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, the U.S. has provided roughly half of the estimated $130 billion in military aid to Ukraine. European allies contributed the rest. But while European governments are pledging to boost weapons production, industry experts warn that it could take a decade to build up sufficient manufacturing capacity.
“Europe is trying to replace the assistance we lost from the United States, but unfortunately, they don’t have the capacity to do this,” Chernev said. “It takes time between the decision and the real assistance.”
“Europe is trying to replace the assistance we lost from the United States, but unfortunately, they don’t have the capacity to do this,” Chernev said. “It takes time between the decision and the real assistance.”
On Friday, a glimmer of support came as a U.S. congressional official confirmed that Washington had approved Germany’s transfer of 125 long-range artillery rockets and 100 Patriot missiles to Ukraine — weapons that require U.S. authorization even when owned by other nations.
Still, the broader picture remains grim. European leaders are increasingly focused on their own defense needs amid fears that Trump might withdraw longstanding U.S. security guarantees, including troop deployments and the American nuclear umbrella. That shift in priorities risks further reducing the resources available to Ukraine.
“They are hitting the dual problem of having to rearm themselves and supply Ukraine, and industrial capacity isn’t big enough to do both,” said Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, a U.K.-based defense think tank.
While Savill said Europe could eventually replace much of the military support the U.S. has provided, he cast doubt on the political will to do so. “In the medium- to long-term, if it has the will, and I’m not sure it has the will,” he said. “No. Not in the short term.”
The consequences on the battlefield could be dire. Without timely supplies of Western arms, Ukrainian forces may be forced to retreat, potentially ceding territory. A cease-fire deal that Trump is attempting to broker would freeze the conflict, allowing Russia to retain any ground it has captured so far.
Despite the shortfall in immediate deliveries, European countries have continued to provide key assistance. Germany recently supplied over 60 armored vehicles, 50,000 artillery shells, and air-defense ammunition, including IRIS-T interceptors capable of downing cruise missiles. Drones bought by the U.K. and Norway as part of a $600 million security package have also arrived, and Estonia is sending 10,000 artillery rounds.
Yet many of these contributions are tied to future procurement and production plans, not immediate battlefield needs. Ukraine’s domestic defense industry, which includes around 800 arms producers, could help narrow the gap — but only with substantial investment. Chernev estimated the industry could eventually produce $35 billion worth of weaponry, but requires at least $14 billion in foreign funding to scale up.
On Saturday, Denmark pledged about $930 million from frozen Russian assets to bolster Ukraine’s defense sector through a European Union fund.
In the meantime, Ukraine is working to stretch its limited arsenal. It is producing millions of drones annually, including cost-effective kamikaze models that reduce reliance on artillery shells. Western intelligence officials note that Ukrainian forces have also become more efficient in using expensive Patriot missiles, reserving them for major threats while deploying cheaper interceptors against drones and other projectiles.
“They would like more cruise missiles and more ballistic missiles and a variety of other weapons,” Savill said. “But for the time being, they’re going to have to fill the gap.”
Earlier today, European leaders called on Russia to cease the fire, threatening the aggressor with sanctions.
Meanwhile, Putin is facing a Nuremberg trial.