Over the past decade, Hungary has seen a steady erosion of democratic checks and balances, as the government of Viktor Orbán has increasingly adopted methods more reminiscent of authoritarian regimes than of European democracies. Civil society groups, independent schools, charities, and the free press have all come under mounting pressure.

Less than a year before Hungary’s most consequential election in a generation, his political empire is collapsing at every level—in Parliament, in city halls, and across the European stage. Once the EU’s most entrenched autocrat, Orbán now faces not just defeat, but humiliation. The numbers are beyond repair. A new poll from the 21 Research Institute shows his ruling Fidesz party at 34%, while Péter Magyar’s insurgent Tisza party has surged to 52% among committed voters.